Below are statistical profiles for each team in the ASC Women’s Basketball Tournament, including my thoughts on why each team can win the tournament, and also what could be their eventual downfall.
1W – Concordia-Texas Tornados (18-3, +0.14)
Pace: 77.2 possessions/game
Offense: 0.87 (0.440 EFG%, 27.8 TO%, 37.0 OR%, 22.7 FTrt)
Defense: 0.73 (0.386 EFG%, 36.0 TO%, 38.3 OR%, 41.6 FTrt)
Why They’ll Win:
Nobody in the conference plays defense like the Tornados. Teams are lucky to even get a shot off, and even then have a hard time making the shot. A defense this good easily covers for an offense which is only slightly above average and can send Concordia to the NCAA tournament.
Why They Won’t:
That defense is prone to giving up second chances and free throws, and the offense does not get much from the line. These weaknesses make Concordia vulnerable to a failure in any of their strengths, particularly a hot shooting day from an opponent.
2W – McMurry War Hawks (16-5, +0.16)
Pace: 70.4 possessions/game
Offense: 0.92 (0.417 EFG%, 24.8 TO%, 44.3 OR%, 18.2 FTrt)
Defense: 0.76 (0.379 EFG%, 30.4 TO%, 33.2 OR%, 37.4 FTrt)
Why They’ll Win:
McMurry forces misses in abundance, at least on those occasions when an opponent manages to get a shot off. With an offense that rebounds their own misses more often than anyone else, the War Hawks are built to weather the tournament storm.
Why They Won’t:
McMurry has to get those offensive rebounds to power an offense that does not shoot or produce from the line particularly well. Without them, or if their opponent manages to hold onto the ball or get hot from the field, McMurry will be heading back to Abilene without a title.
3W – Howard Payne Lady Jackets (16-5, +0.16)
Pace: 75.7 possessions/game
Offense: 0.96 (0.464 EFG%, 23.0 TO%, 36.3 OR%, 22.3 FTrt)
Defense: 0.79 (0.414 EFG%, 30.4 TO%, 32.9 OR%, 32.6 FTrt)
Why They’ll Win:
Howard Payne never turns the ball over and makes more of their shots than anyone else. That is a recipe for a championship-level offense. With a defense that does a fair job preventing makes and forces turnovers with regularity, the Lady Jackets are well-suited to make a run to the top.
Why They Won’t:
The Lady Jackets are roughly average at getting to their own misses and do not produce much from the line, making them susceptible to turnovers and poor shooting. If their defense fails to get enough turnovers or gives up too many makes, Howard Payne will be headed back toBrownwood.
4W – Hardin-Simmons Cowgirls (11-10, +0.08)
Pace: 72.1 possessions/game
Offense: 0.94 (0.442 EFG%, 25.1 TO%, 36.6 OR%, 31.9 FTrt)
Defense: 0.86 (0.422 EFG%, 23.1 TO%, 29.5 OR%, 37.5 FTrt)
Why They’ll Win:
Hardin-Simmons boasts a solid one-and-done defense to pair with an offense that shoots well and tends to get the rebound when they do miss. In addition, the Cowgirls protect the ball well and get good production from the line. When they are hitting on all the above, the Cowgirls can beat anyone.
Why They Won’t:
The defense has to force misses and keep their opponent off the glass since they do not force turnovers and give opponents more free throws than average. If someone manages to make shots and/or crashes the offensive glass, the HSU offense will have to be truly stellar to keep the Cowgirls in the tournament.
1E –Louisiana College Lady Wildcats (18-2, +0.23)
Pace: 90.8 possessions/game
Offense: 0.98 (0.419 EFG%, 19.9 TO%, 41.3 OR%, 17.6 FTrt)
Defense: 0.75 (0.434 EFG%, 38.4 TO%, 38.1 OR%, 47.4 FTrt)
Why They’ll Win:
Witness the power of turnover differential. The Lady Wildcats protect the ball better than anyone, despite a blistering tempo, and force opponents to turn it over almost twice as often. Having that many more shots, plus rebounding a fair amount of your own misses, easily makes up for lackluster shooting and minimal production from the line.
Why They Won’t:
Louisiana College is hugely dependent on that turnover differential. Should they run into someone who solves their pressure or forces them into turnovers, their advantage is likely to rapidly dissipate. They are also prone to giving up free throws, not a good thing in a closely contested tournament.
2E – Texas-Dallas Comets (15-5, +0.13)
Pace: 70.0 possessions/game
Offense: 0.87 (0.444 EFG%, 27.9 TO%, 33.7 OR%, 23.9 FTrt)
Defense: 0.75 (0.368 EFG%, 28.4 TO%, 35.0 OR%, 34.0 FTrt)
Why They’ll Win:
Even if they give up a shot, the Comets do not let you make it, with the best defense against shooting in the conference. With a slightly above average offense boasting some skill at shotmaking, the Comets have the tools to beat anyone.
Why They Won’t:
Being fairly average across the board, except for shooting offense and defense, gives the Comets little margin for error. Should an opponent get hot from the field, or should UTD find their own shots off target, their other skills will struggle to pick up the slack and keep the Comets chasing a NCAA bid.
3E –Mississippi College Lady Choctaws (13-7, +0.02)
Pace: 72.3 possessions/game
Offense: 0.80 (0.443 EFG%, 30.9 TO%, 30.2 OR%, 25.2 FTrt)
Defense: 0.78 (0.402 EFG%, 30.9 TO%, 36.6 OR%, 28.9 FTrt)
Why They’ll Win:
The ladies from Clinton can play defense with anyone. While they are somewhat prone to giving up second chances, they force enough turnovers to make up for it. Keeping opponents off the line helps as well.
Why They Won’t:
The ladies from Clinton struggle to score. They shoot well enough, but they are prone to turnovers and do not get second chances. In a field full of tough defenses, the Lady Choctaws will need to find a way to score to make some noise in the tournament.
4E – Ozarks Lady Eagles (9-11, -0.04)
Pace: 72.6 possessions/game
Offense: 0.85 (0.438 EFG%, 24.7 TO%, 27.1 OR%, 24.0 FTrt)
Defense: 0.90 (0.411 EFG%, 22.7 TO%, 36.0 OR%, 30.4 FTrt)
Why They’ll Win:
Ozarks protects the ball fairly well and shoots about the same. Given that the Lady Eagles also force misses pretty well, the ladies from Clarksville could make some noise in the tournament.
Why They Won’t:
The Lady Eagles do not force turnovers and give up too many second chances to make up for it. With an offense which frequently goes one-and-done, Ozarks will need to be at the top of its game to win the tournament.
JLO Sports 